BALOCHISTAN: WHAT NEXT?
Every day is a new day in Pakistan and Balochistan obviously is not an exception. With the elections seeming imminent in the coming months, the political parties have taken to their cannons to hit the bulls eye in the forth coming election. The political situation in Balochistan is altogether different than rest of the country. The Laissez-Faire style that the " powers to be " want to run the affairs of Balochistan province, it really becomes hard for the political pundits to predict the processes and outcomes of the political maneuvers. To take the discussion forward it should be noted in the very onset that this province compromises of two notable ethnicities i.e Baloch and Pashtun. The political dynamics in both these communities are quiet different.
After the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti the Baloch areas have seen an unprecedented surge in Nationalist militancy. The nationalist narrative in the Baloch political life is now dominated by the nationalist-cum-separatists. Their activities when crossed a specific threshold the invisible forces started kill and dump operations. Now with scores of Baloch youth missing or killed brutally and hundreds of families bereaved and no significant strides in their nationalist cause, it would be very easy to predict that the men of armed struggle will obstruct this process. There are predictions that in that case it would rather become easy for those powers to get elected their stooges with ease using this violence as a pretext for conducting elections under the F.C.
The Baloch have two main nationalist parties, the BNP (Mengal) headed by Sardar Akhtar Mengal. The other is National Party (NP) headed by Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch. Both had boycotted the elections of 2008. The party that had not boycotted the elections is BNP(Awami) they claim to be nationalists but have always been part of the successive non-nationalist governments, and by default they had always been part of dispensations which have ushered in reign of terror on the Baloch. They have never resigned from the government when Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed.
BNP(Mengal) has faced problems from the last many years. Their leader Akhter Mengal was first jailed and then went on exile, and is now suffering from serious illness now. Many of its senior members are in exile while some are assassinated. This party faces serious leadership problems, and to remain relevant in the coming days it is contemplating seat adjustment with the National Party. NP is a Baloch nationalist party mostly comprising of Baloch middle class and professionals as its members. Though it boycotted the 2008 elections, but since then it had carried on a rigorous membership campaigns and occupied some of the political space which hitherto was considered of that of BNP (Mengal) alone, notably in Mastung, Noshki, and Sariab areas of Quetta.
But NP is seemingly in a better position of winning most of seats from the Baloch areas as it made strides outside of what has always been considered its stronghold i.e Makran division and into the central Balochistan. There are other two players in the Baloch areas which can be called ''free souls'' of sorts or stray politicians. Who would manage to win their respective constituencies and would side with any party whose prospects of coming into power are bright but it is evidently clear that this time around the number of such stray politicians would be far less.
The Pashtuns in Balochistan are much more marginalized , their main nationalist party i.e PKMAP boycotted the 2008 elections, the ANP which got 2 seats in the assembly is a mere detachment from its real , and has raised no significant voice for the Pashtuns in the assembly. The biggest benefactor of the PKMAP election boycott is the JUI-F, it is enjoying ministries from the last almost 10 years. It is there only to play politics, without any proper agenda of overall uplift of the mainly Pashtun areas from where they derive their mandate.
It is a dilemma that the representatives from the Baloch areas of Balochistan, though mostly non-nationalist, sometimes do raise voices for their nationalistic goals. These JUI-F leaders though have got seats from the Pashtun areas, they do not raise voice on any question of nationalistic value for the Pashtuns. The Pashtuns also feel marginalized because in literal terms there is no nationalistic voice of Pashtuns in the assembly. the recent rally by the PKMAP in Quetta is a good sign and the large number of people participating in it shows the extent that frustration from the present status-quo, has crept into the Pashtun mass.
PKMAP is demanding either the restoration of the historical commissionrate province or equal rights in the province. This demand coupled with the other demands are resonating well among the Pashtun masses and intelligentsia. But the religious vote has become a permanent phenomenon in the Pashtun region, these parties are not as demanding as their nationalist counterparts, and so are more acceptable to the establishment. These religious parties will not bag as many seats as they did in 2008, but they will not allow a clean sweep to the nationalist parties in Pashtun areas, as is expected in the Baloch areas.
The nationalist parties from both Baloch and the Pashtun areas will succeed in bagging good number of seats. But if they fail to galvanize the support that the people are eager to give to them, then these invisible forces will take the advantage again by getting their stooges elected. Once these parties form their government they will have many responsibilities on their shoulders, of bringing back the missing people. Tackle the issue of the mutilated bodies of the political workers,of satisfying the nationalistic aspirations of their respective populations. Concrete steps are needed to deflate the alienation of different communities in the province. They also need to be vigilant, so that they may not repeat the follies of their previous alliance.
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